☕️ Coffee, tariffs and price rollercoaster: What's going on in the green coffee market?

Hey, dear coffee connoisseurs,
you may have noticed it the last time you went shopping: sometimes your favorite bean costs a small fortune, sometimes it's on sale again. And somehow you keep hearing about "record prices" - but right now? The price is falling. So what's going on in the world of green coffee? Let's unravel the whole thing - relaxed, with a good cup in hand.

📉 A market on the move - or rather: on the decline?

Let's start with the facts:
The green coffee price, especially for Arabica, has fallen significantly in recent weeks after reaching an extreme high in February 2025 (over 440 US cents per pound). We are currently at around 343 US cents per pound (as of April 8, 2025, finanzen.net).

Sounds good at first, right?
Yes, but ... as is so often the case, the devil is in the detail.

🌍 Why have prices risen so much in the first place?

• Climate extremes: Brazil and Colombia had a tough time weather-wise - heat, dry spells, fungal infestation. The harvests suffered.
• Speculation: Coffee is increasingly traded as a "safe haven" on the stock market. This drove the price even higher.
• High freight costs: Logistics chains are still strained - especially for organic coffees from South and Central America.
• Currency risks: A strong Brazilian real makes exports more expensive - and we foot the bill.

🇺🇸 Trump tariffs - and now this too?

New, sometimes drastic tariffs on coffee imports from several countries of origin have been in force since April 2025:

• Brazil (Arabica): +10%
• Vietnam (Robusta): +46%
• Indonesia: +32 %

These tariffs primarily affect the US market, but the effects are felt indirectly worldwide. Large buyers are shifting their purchasing volumes, smaller roasters are securing stocks - this is also affecting the European markets. In short, we could be facing a new wave of prices, even if things currently appear to be calming down.

📈 And what about the "30% price increase"?

This figure comes from estimates by some trade and agricultural experts, who expect an increase of up to 30% in end consumer prices for coffee products by 2025. Particularly affected:

• Discounter coffees
• Large packs in food retail
• Coffees with high organic or Demeter standards

Conclusion: The current price decline is not yet a trend reversal - the next dry spell or political decision could turn the market upside down again.

🎙️ Voices from the scene

Paul Bonna, coffee expert and founder of Kaffeekommune:

"The fluctuations are extreme. If you only react to price, you miss the big picture. It's about quality, fair trade and transparency - not just the price per kilo."

Kaffeemacher.ch in the latest podcast:

"Those who buy long-term and rely on direct trade have planning security - but the market remains tight."

Algrano & Allegro Coffee report:

Significantly longer lead times for contracts and supply chains are making it difficult for smaller roasters - and consumers will soon feel this in their wallets again.

💡 What does this mean for you as a coffee lover?

🔁 In the short term: Yes, it could be that your favorite bean is a few euros cheaper right now.
📅 In the medium term: When the next climatic or political waves roll in, it will be more expensive again.
💚 Long-term: Focus on quality, transparency and fair partnerships. That way, you support producers and roasters - and get better coffee in your cup to boot.

👉 Now it's your turn!

How are you dealing with this rollercoaster ride?
🗨️ Write to us in the comments:
- Are you stocking up now?
- Are you switching to cheaper varieties?
- Or will you stay loyal to your favorite coffee - come what may?

Let's exchange ideas - and understand the coffee world a little better together. 🙌

With lots of caffeine and curiosity,
Your Steffen from NaturBohne ☕️